Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 26.372305 31.468387 37.059463 43.619343 51.074233 59.251903 68.868892
2025-06-15 19.343948 26.176433 34.407580 44.922407 57.855994 73.099448 92.266140
2025-06-22 14.441828 21.676946 31.073868 43.893477 60.619582 81.379385 108.733036
2025-06-29 11.953940 19.569362 30.089570 45.211503 65.861217 92.510111 128.857621
2025-07-06 9.033082 16.208441 26.775297 42.785519 65.649747 96.285255 139.457901
2025-07-13 7.789386 15.069642 26.357796 44.182923 70.530285 106.846836 159.282958
2025-07-20 6.731612 14.005648 25.850027 45.286446 74.932149 116.848881 178.689903
2025-07-27 5.945667 13.242178 25.671486 46.788309 79.908365 127.794347 199.774960
2025-08-03 5.221004 12.443845 25.304066 47.894911 84.275720 137.986126 220.132467
2025-08-10 4.349536 11.188211 23.975152 47.266094 85.848477 144.078459 234.764463
2025-08-17 3.778003 10.416855 23.386268 47.773591 89.171365 152.839360 253.527857
2025-08-24 3.200407 9.507199 22.411354 47.489850 91.137183 159.556320 269.436073
2025-08-31 2.511730 8.227302 20.638035 45.779529 90.909788 163.321084 281.799681
2025-09-07 2.211318 7.818568 20.561548 47.192709 96.101096 175.921161 308.295842
2025-09-14 1.765317 6.897152 19.259781 46.125107 96.875310 181.441752 324.000159
2025-09-21 1.560023 6.581839 19.222558 47.496299 102.015778 194.234924 351.522636
2025-09-28 1.163001 5.546212 17.360132 44.972442 99.884290 194.857550 359.657435
2025-10-05 1.035733 5.335278 17.420968 46.426362 105.174091 208.118663 388.553422
2025-10-12 0.910674 5.087352 17.347706 47.574255 109.931457 220.634301 416.608681
2025-10-19 0.817293 4.923514 17.463489 49.136151 115.554857 234.833823 447.846390
2025-10-26 0.720205 4.706759 17.402109 50.286733 120.423092 247.875802 477.528570
2025-11-02 0.581991 4.248362 16.591305 49.632950 121.657494 254.534746 496.698523
2025-11-09 0.497257 3.989246 16.301606 50.160602 125.278781 265.552900 523.523672